Oil prices rise, boosted by US

International oil prices continued their upward trend in early Asian trading on XunhuiMonday, supported by multiple favorable factors, and market concerns about escalating trade tensions eased. Previously, U.S. President Trump announced a delay in the imposition of a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9th. This decision allowed extra time for U.S.-EU trade negotiations and bolstered market confidence in the short term.

At the time of writing, Brent crude futures were steady, priced at $64.95 per barrel, and U.S. WTI crude futures increased by 0.30% to $61.71 per barrel. Continuing Friday's gains, oil prices remain above key support levels.

Trump's previous tariff threats had sparked widespread market concerns, and the extension decision is seen as a temporary ease in U.S.-EU trade tensions. The EU previously stated the need for more time to advance the agreement process, and Trump promptly provided an additional window, effectively soothing global trade tension.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions also provided support. Although progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations was limited, it was enough to allay concerns about a massive return of Iranian crude to the market. Monday coincided with the last trading day before the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, with some covering of short positions also driving oil prices higher.

On the supply side, signs of contraction in U.S. oil company production capacity are evident. According to energy industry data, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has fallen to 465, the lowest level since November 2021. This change reflects that under the current price environment, some companies are starting to control capital expenditure and restrict supply expansion.

However, the upward momentum in the oil market also faces potential challenges. OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in daily production by more than 410,000 barrels from July at next week's meeting. In addition, the voluntary reduction quota of 2.2 million barrels per day could be entirely lifted by the end of October. The group has already incrementally increased production by about 1 million barrels per day from April to June, adding variables to subsequent market balance.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude prices have broken through the short-term moving average resistance, and technical indicators show strengthening bullish momentum. Prices are currently approaching the critical resistance level of $62. If successfully breached, further gains to $64 are expected; conversely, if retraced, $60 will become the primary support.

Overall, the oil market is maintaining a strong short-term volatility pattern. The market is closely watching the results of the OPEC+ meeting and further developments in U.S.-EU trade negotiations to gauge the direction of future price trends.

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